Last updated on May 14, 2024
Hi Edvin:
I bought your 5/69 calculator. It is brilliant and intriguing.
Currently I am building a game strategy and need some guidance. I am a tech guy and not really a math guy but your theory checks out.
Here are my questions:
QUESTION 1: I did queries on the Texas Powerball and found that the dominant pattern is template #4. By a "significant?" amount. I also noticed in your Idaho example #4 was better than #1.
I understand that over time, template #1 will dominate? But if #4 actually dominated since 2010, that would intuitively be the better choice. On the other hand since we do not see as much frequency for #1, it is due to occur?
What are your thoughts on this? You can see the detailed results in the attached Workbook.
QUESTION 2: Concerning waiting for the right time, here are examples of interval history:
Pattern 1 - Last interval is 13, previous was 2, then 9
Pattern 4 - Last interval is 3, previous was 45, then 16
Would I still consider the avg interval like 16 or 15 wait for the last interval to match, then start from there?
Are there additional insights here?
QUESTION 3: I am figuring out a strategy for number selection from your form.
A. Would picking numbers with the most historical frequency be useless?
B. Would picking numbers within a pattern with most history frequency be equally useless?
C. Are there any strategies to pick the individual numbers?
QUESTION 4: If Powerball 5/69 is random and the same game is played in most states, would using the data from as many states as possible give me more insights?
If I combine Idaho and Texas etc, would the randomness be the same? I think I know the answer already but wanted to confirm.
SUMMARY: This is really fun and it has occupied my mind since I started reading your blog. I find it interesting that the lotto is supposed to be random but yet there is a pattern.
I am also playing around with a Neural Network (needs lots of data) to see if anything significant shows up.
Thanks,
Ram
Hi Ram
Thank you for writing and for your kind words. Let’s start with your first question.
Question #1
First, starting your analysis from 2010 is questionable. It’s crucial to approach historical verification carefully.
The Powerball game has undergone numerous changes in the past. Therefore, it becomes quite challenging to establish meaningful comparisons due to inconsistent probability distribution.
For example, I must start on October 7, 2015, when I analyzed the Powerball game to compare probability predictions with the actual draws.
Why start my analysis on October 7, 2015?
That’s because this is when the 5/69 format was officially adopted.
In short, you cannot mix 5/69 data with other formats because doing so will result in an inconsistent probability distribution.
That’s why extracting the correct dataset is very important.
And yes, template #1 will surely dominate the 5/69 game over time based on the law of large numbers.1
Question #2
Intervals can be quite unreliable, and predicting outcomes in a genuinely random game is highly uncertain. What we know best is that the dominant group always follows the dictate of probability based on the law of large numbers.
If you’re interested in a more mathematical approach involving intervals, you may apply the Empirical Rule2 or the 68–95–99.7% Rule in statistics. So, if a pattern has a 19-draw interval, then 19 x 68% = 12.92. You could play on the 13th draw after the pattern occurs, although it’s worth noting that this approach remains uncertain. It’s an option you can explore if you’re interested.
Question #3
Just make sure that you pick numbers in a balanced way across the number field. Hot and cold numbers don’t work.3 Remember that the lottery follows the probability theory dictate; therefore, your best Powerball strategy shouldn’t rely on individual numbers but on combinatorial groups with the best S/F ratio.
Question #4
The name of the game and the location are irrelevant factors in calculating probability. In short, the behavior of a 5/69 game, as determined by probability, remains the same regardless of its name or location where the draw is held.
I hope that helps.
Stay safe,
Edvin
