Since a lottery game has a negative expected value on average, you must know how to spend your lottery budget in the best way possible.
In this article, we will discuss when to skip and when to play the lottery using combinatorics and probability theory. However, take this strategy with caution, as the exact timing of a random lottery draw is always unpredictable. Keep in mind that the timing strategy isn’t foolproof.
That said, let’s begin.
One way to play is to focus on one combinatorial group. Of course, you should choose the dominant one. Read The Winning Lottery Formula Using Math for more information on combinatorial groups.
Suppose you play the Louisiana Lottery Lotto 6/42 game. The table below will show you the group dominating the game over time.

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As shown in the table, Template #1 is the dominant group. According to the law of large numbers, this template will dominate the lottery draws and continue to dominate as the number of draws increases.
Template #1 is expected to occur approximately 288 times in 5000 draws. In comparison, Template #79 is expected to occur only twice.
As a smart lotto player, you must avoid template #79, as you don’t want to wait for 5000 draws to get only two favorable shots.
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Using the Frequency Ratio as a Guide
Based on our understanding of the Gambler’s Fallacy, do not expect our estimation to be absolute. The law of large numbers suggests that each combinatorial group will approach its relative frequency in repeated draws.
For example, since Template #1 is estimated to occur approximately 288 times in 5000 draws, it has a frequency ratio of 1 to 16 (1:16). This indicates that, on average, Template #1 occurs approximately 6 times in 100 draws.
This ratio implies that playing every draw is not an optimal strategy. Use this information to skip some draws, although, probabilistically speaking, we do not know when to play or skip a lottery draw due to the game’s random nature.
Template #79, on the other hand, has a frequency ratio of 1 to 2,081 (1:2081), which suggests that it occurs approximately once in 2000 draws. As a smart player, you don’t want to spend your money on this group.
No Assurance of Winning
You have to understand that the lottery is a random game. There is no assurance that a template will occur after the 16th draw. It may occur earlier or later.
You cannot predict the lottery. Probability theory is just a guide. It will tell you how often a certain combinatorial group will occur, but it will not tell you exactly when.
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Again, setting aside money for entertainment purposes is important.
Now, I don’t want to be a killjoy. But if you realize it’s better to divert those savings into your retirement plan, do it fast.
However, if you’re really into lottery entertainment, then go ahead. After all, it’s your savings. You’ve saved it and resisted the temptation of playing the lottery for many months just for the right moment, so I guess you deserve to have some fun.
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