Should I Stick to Only the Top 6 Templates?

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Last updated on June 6, 2024

Hi Mr. Hiltner:

I purchased your 6/46 lottery information and am really enjoying using and implementing it. I am very determined to win the NJ 6/46 lottery jackpot. Congratulations on a brilliant and factual/mathematical job of presenting the lottery from a probability/combinatorial basis rather than a wrongful statistical approach.

I've been playing consistently twice a week for a few months now. I have, however, encountered a major problem that I don't know how to solve. I hope you can answer my question. Here it is:

To win the jackpot, I must match the same template. That is my goal. Let's say I purchase 14 - NJ 6/46 tickets. To date, I've been generating only tickets in the top 6 templates out of a total of 84. The top 6, according to your combinatorial chart, account for the following probability values: 5.5% for template #1, 5.1 % for template #2 to #5, and 4.7 % for template #6, for a total of about 31% cumulative probability.

Unfortunately, in the 2-3 months I've been playing, the top 6 has only occurred about 26% of the time. I want to be eligible for a template match more often.

I've been generating ONLY template #1-6 (top 6) tickets since playing only the template #1 is too restrictive. By playing only template #1, I'd be wrong 94.4% of the time. Too much! So, by focusing on the top 6 templates, I increase the probability of a template-matching from 5.6% to about 31%! 

Now, if I become even less restrictive and increase the size of my net to the top 12, the cumulative probability increases to about 48%. For the top 18, it increases to almost 60%.

Herein lies my dilemma: If I go from the top 6 to the top 12 or 18 instead, I increase the size of my cumulative probability and thereby increase the probability of a template-matching. That's the good part. The bad part is that I'm diluting away from the most probable template by purchasing less likely templates. 

Obviously, the more templates I allow, the fewer dominant (most likely) tickets I buy. That's the downside and apparent tradeoff. Combinatorics has never been my strongest area.

So, here's my question: If I were to buy some number of tickets (say 7 or 14), from a purely mathematical standpoint of what is most probable/efficient, should I stick to only the top 6 templates or expand to the top 12 or the top 18?

I consider your information and knowledge with utmost respect and admiration. 

Thank you so much for your time and help!

Hi Gary,

Thank you for writing in.

You mentioned, “To win the jackpot, I must match the same template.” Well, you can’t win the jackpot by just matching the template. You have to match all the correct numbers.

I am almost certain that your ultimate goal is to win the jackpot. Therefore, I assume you’re adding more templates to improve your chances of winning.

If you think playing more templates will improve your strategy, that is possible because your chances of winning increase as long as you buy more tickets.

So, if you buy 14 tickets, you can use the top 12 templates. That’s OK.

However, if you stick with only the top 6, that’s OK too.

Whatever strategy you use, whether 6 templates or 12 templates, the probability remains the same. Whether you have an improved probability is always dictated by the number of tickets you buy.1

As a user of the Lotterycodex calculator, your advantage comes from following the game’s trend according to the law of large numbers with better success-to-failure ratio than any other players.

Remember that playing the full lottery wheel will give you the widest-covering strategy. You can exclude certain templates, but this is all up to you.

Whatever you do, consistency is always the thing that matters.

Don’t expect your strategy to work in two or three months. Think long-term, as the lottery game follows the law of large numbers.2

Use the same list of combinations each time you play until you win. For example, if you play 1 ticket in each draw, then your probability will be:

P(6/46 jackpot) = 1/9,366,819

Let’s say you keep playing for 10 draws, playing one ticket per draw, then you get this probability:

1/9,366,819 x 10 draws = 10/9,366,819 = 1/936,682

This time, instead of waiting for 9 million attempts, you’ve improved it to almost one million by playing one ticket each draw for 10 draws.

So that means if you are consistent, you’re getting closer.  It takes persistence, patience, and perseverance.

If you play 14 tickets for each draw, then your probability in 100 draws will be:

14/9,366,819 x 100 attempts = 1400/9,366,819 = 1/6,691

It’s a huge improvement but still not a good number. Nonetheless, your probability improves if you are consistent.

Now, what is better, playing 14 tickets for each draw or 1400 tickets all at once? The latter option is best when you implement a covering strategy, such as using a lottery wheel. A lottery wheel is more strategic if you want to trap the winning numbers.

However, implementing a lottery wheel is not easy, as you need a huge entertainment budget. So, playing a lottery game as a group will be necessary.

The problem with lottery games is that they are difficult to win because you cannot predict the winning numbers, and the odds are too astronomical. From the very start, you have to accept this fact. That’s why I keep on saying that the lottery is just entertainment. You spend only the money that you can afford to lose.

Play consistently. If you lose, go back to saving money and buy tickets when you’re ready.  Keep it that way until you win.

The lottery is random; you can do only so much.

I hope that helps.

Stay safe,
Edvin

Additional Resources

  1. Basic Probability Course    []
  2. Law of Large Numbers    []

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