10 Lottery Strategy Myths Debunked

1

Last updated on March 24, 2024

No one can beat the odds of a random event, but many players continue to devise a lottery strategy to circumvent the odds. However, many of these methods are based on misconceptions about how the game works.

Whatever you do, you always get the same probability as any other player. But you can be smarter. Since predicting the next winning numbers is difficult, you might as well play it right.

Here are the top lottery strategy myths that lotto players must know and correct once and for all. Perhaps You’re Doing #4 or #10.

Let’s start.

1. A Lottery Strategy Using Statistics Can Help

A lottery game is finite. You know that there are 49 balls in a 6/49 game. You know that you have to pick six numbers to play a combination. In short, your knowledge of the game is adequate; therefore, you don’t need any statistical sampling to understand how your game works.

In a lottery with a finite structure, any question you ask is a probability problem to solve rather than a statistical one.

For example, you can ask, “What composition of low and high numbers is drawn frequently in a 6/49 game?”

To answer that question, your lottery strategy should look at how combinatorial composition works rather than the performance of individual numbers. To do this, we need the help of combinatorial mathematics along with probability theory.

We start by grouping the numbers into the following sets:

Low numbers = {1,2,3,4,5,6,…25}

High numbers = {26,27,28,29,30,…49}

Then, we will come up with the complete list of low-high combinatorial compositions and their corresponding probability below:

Combination PatternExpected occurrence in 100 draws
0-low-6-high1
1-low-5-high8
2-low-4-high23
3-low-3-high33
4-low-2-high25
5-low-1-high9
6-low-0-high1

The above table shows that three groups are drawn frequently. These are the 2-low-4-high, the 3-low-3-high, and the 4-low-2-high group. The 3-low-3-high group bested all groups.

The table tells you we can calculate how the lottery will behave over time when finite possibilities are involved.

There are 4,655,200 ways to combine numbers using a 3-low-3-high composition. And there are only 134,596 ways to combine numbers where all numbers are high numbers. Therefore, according to probability theory, most winning combinations consist of 3-low-3-high numbers.

There is no need to check historical results to arrive at this conclusion.

Check any pick-6 lottery game and go down the past 100 draws. Then tally the trending low-high pattern. It is always the 3-low-3-high composition that dominates the game

Now, if statistics will not help, what will?

I recommend understanding your lottery game using combinatorial mathematics and probability theory. Read How to Win the Lottery According to Math.

2. You are Helpless Because All Combinations Are Equally Probable

Realize that this belief restricts you from looking at the lottery differently.

Surely, you have no power to manipulate the probability, and you cannot beat the odds of any lottery game. Nonetheless, a lottery strategy exists because you have the power to make intelligent choices.

Let me explain.

Every number in the number field has the same probability of occurrence in a draw as any other. It’s a mathematical fact.

But you don’t win the lottery by picking a single number. That’s not how the lottery works.

You must choose 5 or 6 numbers and match the winning combination to win a lottery jackpot.

Theoretically, all combinations have a chance of being a winner. Your odds of winning the jackpot prize are one against all the possible ways you fail.

Odds of winning the jackpot = 1/All possible combinations minus 1

The odds are simply the ratio of success to failure in plain English.

Odds of winning the jackpot = success/failure

Of course, whatever strategy you use, the odds never change.

But remember, you can “choose” your odds.

It’s important to understand that as a player, “You can make informed choices.

For example, instead of playing 6/49, you can choose to play 6/42. The number of ways you fail is reduced to 5,245,785 instead of 13,983,815. And you can further reduce your odds by buying more tickets. For example, if you buy two tickets, your odds in a 6/42 game become 1 to 2,622,892.

That’s a noticeable improvement from 13,983,815 to 2,622,892. If you play better games, like 5/35, your odds will improve even further.

But what if you like the 6/49 game? What strategies do you have?

Then, look at your game from a different light.

Looking more deeply, combinations have different compositions. Therefore, varying ratios of success to failure exist because of varying combinatorial composition.

As the previous table shows, the 3-low-3-high group occurs 33 times in 100 draws, while the 6-low-0-high combination pattern appears only once in 100 draws.

Make informed choices and be wrong less often.

If you look at the game in a different light, you can have a better advantage if you choose the composition that occurs more frequently to get the best shot possible. This strategy puts you at better odds for most of the draws.

Let’s illustrate my point with the notorious line 1-2-3-4-5-6.

This line belongs to the 6-low-0-high group. There are 134,596 ways to combine six low numbers this way.

Now, we know that the lottery is truly random. At one point, it will draw a 2-low-4-high combination. At one point, it will draw a 5-low-1-high combination.

So when a lottery game draws a 6-low-0-high combination, know that this opportunity occurs only 1.2% of the time or about once every 100 draws.

In comparison, when a game is going to draw a 3-low-3-high combination, you get more favorable shots, as this event takes place 33.28% of the time. In other words, you get 33 favorable shots out of 100 draws.

So now, what will you choose?

As a lotto player, you are not helpless. You have the power to choose.

What you will see below are theoretical calculations that closely match the actual results.

Australian Tattslotto 6/45

949 draws from January 7, 2006, to March 16, 2024.1

Tattslotto low/high analysis updated as of March 16, 2024. The 3-low-3-high group was estimated to occur 318 times, it occurred 294 times. The 0-low-6-high group was estimated to occur 9 times and it occurred 6 times in the actual draws.

US Powerball 5/69

1,008 draws from October 7, 2015, to March 16, 20242

Powerball low/high analysis March 16, 2024 Update. The 5-low-0-high group was predicted to occur 29, it occurred 35 times in the actual statistics. The 3-low-2-high group was estimated to occur 329 times, it occurred 326 times in the actual draw.

EuroMillions 5/50

1,705 draws from April 16, 2004, to March 15, 20243

Euromillions low/high analysis updated as of March 15, 2024. The 3-low-2-high group was estimated to occur 555 times. The group occurred 611 times. The 0-low-5-high group was estimated to occur 43 times. The group occurred 28 times.

Irish Lottery 6/47

890 draws from September 5, 2015, to March 16, 20244

The Irish Lotto low/high analysis updated as of March 16, 2024. The 3-low-3-high group was estimated to occur 297 times, the group occurred 297 times in the actual draw. The 0-low-6-high group was estimated to occur 8 times. The group occurred 9 times in the actual draw.

EuroJackpot 5/50

728 draws from March 23, 2012, to March 15, 20245

The EuroJackpot low/high analysis updated as of March 15, 2024. The 3-low-2-high group was estimated to occur 237 times. The group occurred 252 times in the actual draw. The 0-low-5-high group was estimated to occur 18 times. The group occurred 13 times in the actual draw.

UK Lotto 6/59

876 draws from October 10, 2015, to March 16, 20246

The UK Lotto low/high analysis updated as of March 16, 2024. The 3-low-3-high group was estimated to occur 288 times. The group occurred 301 times in the actual draw. The 0-low-6-high group was estimated to occur 9 times. The group occurred 10 times in the actual draw.

U.S. Mega Millions 5/70

628 draws from October 31, 2017, to March 08, 20247

The Mega Millions low/high analysis updated as of March 8, 2024. The 3-low-2-high group and the 0-low-5-high group were estimated to occur 202 and 17 times respectively. The actual draws closely matched the estimation with the 3-low-2-high and 0-low-5-high occurring 217 and 7 times respectively. This agreement between probability estimation and the actual draws proved that the lottery is subordinate to the dictate of the probability theory.

Combinatorial groups exhibit varying success-to-failure ratios. As a lotto player, your mindset is to get the best shot possible. So choose the group that works for you.8

Combinatorial and probability calculations can be very complex, but a Lotterycodex calculator can guide you in the number selection process.

3. You Cannot Predict the Lottery

A lottery game is truly random. You cannot predict the next winning numbers, but you can predict the general behavior of a lottery game from many draws.9

If you read myths #1 and #2, you should know that we can calculate the likely outcome of a lottery game over time in conjunction with the law of large numbers.

Let’s return to my probability analysis of the Lotto 6/49 game regarding the low-high composition and see how lotto prediction is possible.

CompositionExpected occurrence in 3000 draws
3-low-3-high999
6-low-0-high38

Using combinatorial and probability analysis, we calculate that a 6-low-0-high composition will occur 38 times in 3000 draws.

Expected occurrence(6-low-0-high) = 0.0126 x 3000 = 38

The 3-low-3-high composition will occur about 999 times.

Expected occurrence(3-low-3-high) = 0.33289 x 3000 = 999

The table shows you what combinatorial group will dominate in 3000 draws.

This prediction is a mathematical certainty.

According to the law of large numbers, this behavior will remain the same. This means the same composition will continue dominating the lottery draws as more drawing events occur.

Take a look at the 6/49 lottery game in 5000 draws.

CompositionExpected occurrence in 5000 draws
3-low-3-high1,664
6-low-0-high63

If that is not a prediction, then I don’t know what is.

4. Hot and Cold Numbers Exist

If you believe playing with hot and cold numbers will help you take the big jackpot home, then I have some bad news for you.10

It amazes me that many players would try to pick the most likely numbers based on the frequency in the last 100 draws.

However, as lottery draws take place and start to get larger and larger, those less frequently occurring numbers start to catch up until all numbers even out. So, gathering all the past results and putting your data under whatever statistical analysis you employed will not give you any clue.

In probability theory, every number has an equal chance of getting drawn. As the number of draws increases, each number will tend to converge in the same theoretical probability. This theorem is what we call the Law of Large Numbers or LLN.11

In layman’s terms, given a large number of draws, the occurrence of each number in the lottery tends to be closer and closer to each other until all numbers even out. Therefore, hot and cold numbers don’t exist.

In the lottery, the combination matters, not the individual numbers.

The game requires combining 4, 5, or 6 correct numbers. Throw away whatever statistical tools you are using. Get your pencil and paper and work out some combinatorial and probability problems. Use a Lotterycodex calculator to make the selection much easier.

5. Your Lottery Strategy Must Avoid Unlucky Numbers

There are no lucky or unlucky numbers in the lottery. All numbers have the same probability according to the law of large numbers.

If you follow me on myth #4, you should know that the law of large numbers does not respect superstitious beliefs. Again, I want to reinforce that individual numbers do not matter in the lottery. It is hitting the right combination that matters.

If you want to be lucky, then learn what is mathematically possible.12

6. Using Prime Numbers as a Lottery Strategy

Here is another lottery strategy based on making assumptions from observations but failing to explain how things work from a mathematical perspective of the law of large numbers. Consistently, players always have this “performance-of-individual-numbers” mentality.

Here is the complete list of prime numbers used in the lottery:

2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, 41, 43, 47, 53, 59, 61, 67, 71, 73, 79, 83, 89, 97

I reckon 97 is probably the last prime number in the lottery. I do not know any lottery that operates beyond 99. If any, let me know.

Now, did you notice that the number 2 is the only even prime from the list and that the rest are odd numbers? A truly random lottery game distributes the probability fairly between odd and even numbers. This even distribution explains why a lottery game rarely draws combinations composed of purely odd numbers or purely even numbers. Most winning combinations in a pick-6 game are composed of a balanced mix of odd and even numbers.

Fair distribution of the probability across the number field

The pie graph below shows that the probability is equally distributed in all 49 numbers of the Canada Lotto 6/49 game in the past 3688 draws.

I can list hundreds of similar studies from different lottery systems, but the same probability principle applies to all of them.

Again, I don’t mean that a 5-odd-1-even group has no chance of winning. Of course, it has. Similar to our study of myth #2, you have the power to choose your odds.

My probability calculation shows that 33.28% of the time, a 6/49 game will draw a 3-odd-3-even combination. This contradicts the belief that prime numbers occur more frequently in a lottery draw.

Go back to your favorite lottery’s past 100 results. Tally the odd and even numbers. You will discover that odd and even numbers even out as dictated by probability theory:

7. The Better Time to Play is When the Jackpot is Big

A horde of lottery fanatics will play when the prize is big, and the chances of sharing the big prize are very high. Indeed, it doesn’t make sense to win the big jackpot and only take home just 1/3 of the money.

Sure, you can wait to play when the draw’s jackpot is at its highest to make the most of your ticket, but what is the guarantee that the jackpot will go up again in the next draw? In short, waiting is pointless.

As soon as your savings are enough, go out and play. Notice that I mentioned “savings.” That’s because I want you to play the lottery responsibly.13

I am not suggesting that you play every draw. Save money for your lottery entertainment. And follow a game plan.14

8. Special Dates, Anniversaries, and Ages Must Be Avoided.

Some experts tell players to avoid them simply because many people use numbers from a calendar, which results in splitting the jackpot between winning players.

Whatever the reasons, the probability doesn’t care. A truly random lottery game will draw numbers according to the principle of probability theory.

Use special dates if you want to use them as part of your lottery strategy. But don’t ignore other numbers. Remember that a random lottery game picks winning numbers across the number field. So don’t limit your range to just 1 to 31.

Understand the ratio of success to failure when picking numbers to play.

9. Aesthetic Pattern Is Impossible

The lottery is a random game. And the truth is that non-random patterns do have a chance to win.

picking numbers in the lottery using pretty patterns

If you pick numbers based on patterns like the above, then realize that many people are doing the same thing. If your combination occurs in a lottery draw, the possibility of splitting the jackpot with other players is very high.

One proof of this is when 50 players won the jackpot for the Mass Cash game from the Massachusetts Lottery. Each of them got $48,000.15

The winning combination was 3–9–15–21–27, with each number having a 6 interval. These numbers created a vertical line on the third column of the bet slip.

It’s not impossible. Right.

But again, here’s where you activate your power to choose.

If you feel a line like 9-19-29-39-49 works for you, go ahead. It has an equal chance of winning as any other combination in a lottery game.

Or you can use a lottery calculator and play around with various success-to-failure ratios that work for you.16

10. A Quick Pick Machine is a Good Lottery Strategy

Most quick-pick machines installed in your local lottery shop produce numbers using a random algorithm. I think random selection is just playing without a lottery strategy.

Some of you may already know me. I always advocate strategizing your game because that’s where the fun begins. Number selection is part of the enjoyment.

I reckon a quick pick machine doesn’t give you that much fun.

Hang on; I heard someone say:

But Edvin, most of the winners I heard from the news are coming out by quick pick machine. Does this not enough proof that quick pick machine works?

Short answer:

No. Many are winning with a quick-pick machine because the number of players who use it is higher than those who pick numbers by hand.

Long answer:

The number of players who win by a quick pick machine is not the right gauge to prove that it gives you a better chance of winning. However, the lottery operators would love you to believe that.

Once, the old Powerball website said this:

About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks. Perhaps just one of those weird coincidences?17

If we follow the official statement we found on the old Powerball website, we get:

Probability(Quick pick) = 80% of winners / 80% of purchases

Probability(Player pick) = 20% of winners / 20% of purchases

Therefore:

Probability(quick pick) = Probability(player pick)

The official Powerball website only means that:

The chances of those who use a quick pick machine and those who pick numbers by hand are the same.

You don’t have control when using the quick-pick machine. This is especially true if your lottery strategy is to buy more tickets.

For one thing, a machine has no common sense. It just picks numbers randomly for you without analyzing the numbers. You should select numbers or use Lotterycodex as your number generator to help you.18

If you generate your numbers, you have better control over your choices, like the MIT students did when they monopolized the Massachusetts Cash Winfall in 2005 and continued for seven years.19

The lottery syndicate took advantage of the lottery’s weakness and profited $8 million.20 Most of these students majored in mathematics.

Interestingly, they did not win the big jackpot, but winning $8 million in seven years isn’t a joke. Is it?21

They know better than anyone else.

How did they do it?

While others save time using the quick pick machine, these MIT students were busy using their prodigious math skills to fill out lotto slip oval to oval. By generating their numbers, they knew they could produce a broader covering to trap the winning numbers. This strategy is known as a lottery wheel. A quick pick machine is not capable of this approach. Learn more: Lottery Wheel: A Clever Mathematical Strategy That Works.

My Two Cents About Lottery Strategy

What is the best way to win the lottery?

You cannot change the lottery odds, no matter what you do. So the only strategy left for you to win is to buy more tickets. Here, I suggest using a lottery wheel. You can use the Lotterycodex calculator as a lottery wheel.

A true lottery formula is mathematical. It should allow you to see all the possible choices to help you make an informed choice. For example, you can calculate the number of tickets to play for a 50-50 chance of winning any prize.22

Lotterycodex will help you calculate all the possible choices in your game and finally help you make the right choice based on the ratio of success to failure that works for you.

There’s no trick to winning a lotto game. Learn more about sensible lottery tips that work for you and do it.23 You can waste money, or you can play smart. You choose. Let me know your thoughts.

Lottery Strategy Q and A

Can statistical analysis help in lottery strategy?

No. Lottery games have a finite structure; they are more about solving probability problems than relying on statistical analysis.

Are all lottery combinations equally probable?

Yes, every number has the same probability of being drawn, but combinations have different compositions affecting the success-to-failure ratios.

Can you predict lottery numbers?

While it is impossible to predict specific numbers, you can forecast the general behavior of a lottery game over time using combinatorial and probability analysis. For instance, based on the Law of Large Numbers, you can identify which combinations will likely be more prevalent in lottery draws over time.

Do hot and cold numbers affect lottery outcomes?

No, in a truly random lottery draw, each number has an equal chance of being selected, irrespective of its frequency in previous draws. Due to the Law of Large Numbers, all numbers tend to even out over the long run.

Are there unlucky numbers in the lottery?

No, there are no lucky or unlucky numbers; all have the same probability. This belief in unlucky numbers often stems from personal or cultural superstitions and has no basis in the random operations of lottery games.

Is using prime numbers a good lottery strategy?

No, this strategy is based on observation rather than mathematical analysis and overlooks the equal probability distribution among odd and even numbers. It’s important to note that there is only one even number among the prime numbers.

Is it better to play the lottery when the jackpot is bigger?

The size of the jackpot doesn’t change the odds of winning. Bigger jackpots tend to invite more players, sharing the prize with more winners.

Should special dates, anniversaries, and ages be avoided in lottery numbers?

No, these numbers have the same probability as any others, but limiting your choices to 1-31 can reduce your chance of unique combinations. For example, in a 6/49 game, the probability is distributed across 49 numbers.

Can aesthetic patterns in number selection improve lottery odds?

No, while non-random patterns can win, they don’t increase the likelihood of winning and may lead to shared jackpots. We still suggest using a lottery wheel to play strategically and improve your odds of winning.

Is a quick pick machine a good lottery strategy?

Quick-pick machines offer the same odds as manual selection but don’t provide the mathematical and strategic enjoyment of selecting your numbers. For example, you cannot use a lottery wheel with a quick pick. A lottery wheel is a strategic choice when purchasing more tickets.

Additional Resources

  1. How To Win Tattslotto According To Math    []
  2. How To Win The US Powerball 5/69 According To Math    []
  3. How To Win The Euromillions 5/50 According To Math    []
  4. How To Win The Irish Lottery 6/47 According To Math    []
  5. How To Win The Eurojackpot 5/50 According To Math    []
  6. How To Win The UK Lotto 6/59 According To Math    []
  7. How To Win The US Mega Millions 5/70 According To Math    []
  8. The Lotto Secret: Three Math Strategies for Winning Revealed    []
  9. A Truly Random Lottery with a Deterministic Outcome    []
  10. Most Common Winning Lottery Numbers are Not the Best    []
  11. Law of Large Numbers    []
  12. How To Use Lucky Numbers To Win The Lottery    []
  13. Play The Lottery Responsibly    []
  14. The Lottery Game Plan    []
  15. 50 people win Massachusetts Lottery drawing, setting new record    []
  16. Lottery Calculator: A Mathematical Guide Beyond Number Selection    []
  17. Old Powerball FAQ section (January 2017 version)    []
  18. A Lottery Number Generator That Works    []
  19. How a Group of MIT Students Gamed the Massachusetts State Lottery    []
  20. Lottery Syndicate: A Simple Yet Effective Strategy    []
  21. A Calculated Approach to Winning the Lottery    []
  22. How to Achieve a 50/50 Chance of Winning the Lottery    []
  23. Lottery Tips – What Works and What Doesn’t    []
Lotterycodex has a 4 star rating on Trustpilot

Check us out on Trustpilot

Recent Posts