Is the Lottery Truly Random, or Are Winning Numbers Selected Strategically?

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Last updated on June 6, 2024

Good day Edvin,

Observing the results all this time, I see that main draws completely go against every rule. There are often more odd numbers or more even numbers at a time, and there are many consecutive numbers, too, in the winning combinations.

In other words the winning numbers follow the composition which have the least chances to win.

I am forming the hypothesis that the lottery actually selects the combinations and the draws are not purely random.

I don't know the mechanical process used to pull this off, but I am no longer convinced that the draws are random.

I think that in addition to best practices in terms of combinatorics, the lottery will decide which combination of numbers to draw as part of its business model.

I believe they will select the combination of numbers that is less repeated or has not been played whether they wish for the lottery to be won or not in a given draw.

They determine this by, of course, compiling all the played combinations, running them by a computer prior to the draw, and deciding which combination of numbers will win.

The luck factor for us players is maintained, albeit slightly different. It is no longer a matter of what combination of numbers we play according to the statistical and combinatorial rules but rather whether the combination we play has been selected to win or not based on other factors such as the number of players playing the same combination and financial and business considerations.

Let's not forget that a lottery game is a business, after all, and they cannot afford to have winners in every draw. They also profit from players' emotional responses. When the prizes get higher, more people play, thus generating more revenues for the Lottery, and practically, the prizes pay themselves.

I just wanted to throw that Hypothesis towards you for "academic" reasons, let's say, to consider, albeit I do not have any direct proof of any of it except the observations of the draws themselves.

It may be worth playing some combinations from the opposite spectrum that yield fewer chances to win because we never know if such a combination is selected to win by the lottery business.

Cheers!
JSP

Hi JSP,

Thank you for sharing your hypothesis. Some people feel like you do out of frustration, and I respect your position.

From my perspective, what’s happening is that the odds are truly not favorable.  The chance that someone wins the jackpot is more likely not you out of millions of combinations.  That’s the odds that you must accept.

Regarding your observation, you are probably making observations based on a limited dataset. For example, if you only make observations from 10 or 20 draws, your conclusion cannot be validated due to insufficient data.1

From a scientific point of view, know that an accurate conclusion can only be achieved with the law of large numbers.2 In other words, you must have enough draws to arrive at any meaningful conclusions. This usually requires 500 draws or more.

A lottery game is truly random, but it can be somewhat deterministic. Please read this: A Truly Random Lottery with a Deterministic Outcome

I hope that helps.

Stay safe,
Edvin

Additional Resources

  1. The law of small numbers: When statistics and psychology go to war    []
  2. Law of Large Numbers / Law of Averages    []

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