Every ticket in the lottery has an equal probability of being selected as the winning ticket. In this fair game, the likelihood of winning is fairly distributed among all participants, with no player having an advantage over another. For example, if a lottery has 13 million tickets, each ticket would have a 1 in 13 million chance of winning.
If that’s true, then fret not because all hope is not lost for all lotto players, even if numbers and combinations have an equal probability. Let me explain, and I would like to start with this letter below:
Hi Edvin,
Your reply to this one question will answer all my other questions. All combinations in the lottery have an equal probability of getting drawn. But you said combinations are not created equally. Since both statements can not be true simultaneously, which statement is true?
Let me shed some light on this question.
All numbers and combinations have an equal probability.1 That will not change. It’s a mathematical fact.
Although combinations have an equal probability, they don’t have the same composition. Since combinations have different compositions, we separate them into combinatorial groups.2 Therefore, we use combinatorial groups to extract useful mathematical information to help lottery players make informed decisions. In lotterycodex, we present this information as the frequency ratio. Read The Lottery Formula: Combinatorics and Probability at Work
To give you some background, odds and probability are two different mathematical terms. They have different equations.3
Probability = A/B
Odds = A/(B – A)
Where:
A = number of favorable events.
B = all possible combinations
Based on the calculation, probability refers to your chance, while odds refer to your advantage. This distinction means you cannot change the underlying probability but have control over your advantage.
Since all combinations have equal probability, it’s OK to play 2-4-6-8-10-12 or 10-20-30-40-50.
But your gut feeling tells you, “Those combinations are not the most sensible choices you can make as a lotto player.”
There must be a mathematical explanation for why part of you screams and says you can’t bet on certain combinations even though you know there is an equal probability. That’s where the odds get into the picture. Therefore, the secret is in the act of choosing better odds. In Lotterycodex, we refer to the odds as the frequency ratio.
You must understand the difference between odds and probability to support your gut feeling. You cannot manipulate lottery numbers, but you can make an intelligent decision.
How do you make that intelligent decision? You choose better odds that are more favorable to you.
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