Lotterycodex Mathematics Meets The Lottery

Using Birth Dates For Lotto Combination? Here’s What Math Says

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Have you ever asked yourself?

Is birth date a good strategy for number selection? What does math say about it?

Let’s set one thing straight from a mathematical perspective.

Birth dates are commonly used numbers in the lottery.

What experts say

Many experts recommend that you should never use birth dates when you play the lottery.

They say it’s a bad strategy. Or is it?

Explanations are varied.  Some may be valid, and some are mere assumptions. Here are some of the most popular ones:

  1.  Birth dates restrict your combination to calendar numbers of 1 to 31.  So you neglect other numbers in the process.  This approach doesn’t adhere to the natural behavior of random selection.
  2.  Winning numbers in the lottery tend to be evenly distributed over the entire number field.  So restricting your numbers only from 1 to 31 reduces your chances of hitting the grand prize.
  3. Many players are using dates in the lottery.  If you indeed win, chances are, you will likely share your jackpot prize with other winners.

Are they right? I let you be the judge.

Let’s use math to find out if birth dates are worth playing for.

The mathematical proof

The mathematical calculation differs from lottery to lottery. So to illustrate my point, we will use a lotto 649 system.

Here, we only use birth dates as the primary topic as it is the most commonly used approach.  But the calculations we will be doing here applies to anniversaries and memorable days in your life as well.

As usual, we will use probability theory.

Let’s group numbers into two sets. We will call numbers from 1 to 31 as calendar numbers which we will refer to as C.  And the rest of the numbers as non-calendar numbers which we will refer to as N.

Thus, we get:

Calendar numbers or C = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,…,31}

Non-calendar numbers or N = {32,33,34,35,36,37,…,49}

So with these sets of numbers, we produce the following number patterns.

Pattern Description
6N All numbers are non-calendar numbers (numbers 32 and above)
1C and 5N 1 calendar number and 5 are not
2C and 4N 2 calendar numbers and 4 are not
3C and 3N 3 calendar numbers and 3 are not
4C and 2N 4 calendar numbers and 2 are not
5C and 1N 5 calendar numbers and 1 is not
6C All numbers are calendar numbers (numbers 31 and below)

Using binomial coefficients, we can determine the number of possible combinations that each pattern can produce.

Pattern Possible Combinations
6N 18,564
1C and 5N 265,608
2C and 4N 1,422,900
3C and 3N 3,667,920
4C and 2N 4,814,145
5C and 1N 3,058,398
6C 736,281

All of these patterns can produce a total of 13,983,816 possible combinations for a lotto 649 system.

Therefore, the probability for each pattern is computed as follows:

Pattern Probability
6N 0.00132753463003232
1C and 5N 0.0189939570143085
2C and 4N 0.101753341148081
3C and 3N 0.262297501626166
4C and 2N 0.344265470884342
5C and 1N 0.218709828561817
6C 0.0526523661352524

So based on the probability value, we can estimate the likely outcome of the lottery in 100 draws.

Pattern Estimated occurrence in 100 draws
6N almost zero occurrence
1C and 5N twice
2C and 4N 10 times
3C and 3N 26 times
4C and 2N 34 times
5C and 1N 22 times
6C 5 times

Based on the mathematical estimation, the best combination is, therefore, 4C and 2N followed by 3C and 3N.

So, what math says

With all these mathematical calculations, it tells you one thing crystal clear:

Using birth dates for a lotto combination is not a bad thing.

But …

If you insist on using birth dates, then, keep it within 3 to 5 numbers.  Never go beyond 5.  Optimum level is 4 birth dates.

So in the case of lotto 649, your best bet is  4C and 2N.  That is, you select 4 numbers based on birth dates or special dates in your life, then the rest can be any numbers from 32 to 49.

Remember, we are discussing lotto 649.  Your local lottery certainly has a different calculation.

Mathematical estimation versus actual lottery results

Now, If you want to prove the calculation, certainly you need to consult the past lottery results for comparison.

I’ll let you do that for yourself.

Make this an opportunity for you to prove that theoretical calculation closely matches with the actual lottery results.  The close match is a mathematical certainty as described in the Law of Large Numbers.

It’s straightforward.

Just go back to some 100 past draws in any lotto 649 system. Make your tally. Then compare everything here on this page.  Don’t expect that you get an exact match.  Because probability is just about “estimation.”  It is only a guide.  But like I said earlier if you are familiar with the Law of Large Number, probability estimation, and actual statistical results always match closely.  It is a mathematical certainty.

Advanced Number Patterns

Of course, some people preach that all combinations are equally likely whether you are using birth dates or whatnot.  I have debunked this already in my article How to Win the Lottery According to Math.

There is more to the lottery than meets the eye.  Deep within its finite numbers are layers of patterns that could be the key to your lottery success.

I invite you to check out the lottery analysis page to see what works in your local lottery system.  Just select your lottery and then apply what works in your local settings.

Okay, the odds of the lottery may not change.  You can’t beat the odds.

But …

You can use math to make sure that your bet is a good one.

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Lotterycodex Mathematics Meets The Lottery

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Edvin Hiltner

I get a good grasp of mathematical theory through persistent learning. I get my inspirations from the works of Gerolamo Cardano and Renato Gianella in the fields of Combinatorics and Probability theory.

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